As the coronavirus pandemic is triggering fears of a global recession, foreign investors have started rowing back from the Indian capital markets by withdrawing a massive over Rs 1 lakh crore in March after remaining net buyers for six consecutive months. In order to contain the spread of coronavirus, lockdowns have become a norm the world over and have led the FPIs to adopt a cautious stance, market experts said.
Institutional investments in real estate may fall 20 per cent to $4 billion during this calendar year because of a higher inflow of funds in 2020, according to property consultant JLL India. During the January-September period, the institutional investment rose to $2,977 million from $1,534 million in the year-ago period. "Unless some large portfolio deals are not inked at the end of the year, annual investments are expected to be in the $3.8-4 billion range in 2021," JLL said in a statement. Institutional investments managed to cross the $5 billion mark in 2020 due to large portfolio deals worth $3.2 billion during the last quarter of the year.
The hospitality industry has around 212,000 rooms, with an industry size of about Rs 82,000 crore. The industry could grow at an annual rate of 10.5 per cent for the next three financial years, despite a quiet Q1FY25. The demand will be driven by domestic travellers, who will contribute roughly 50 per cent of the growth, while foreign tourists will account for 30 per cent.
'Starting an SIP now and continuing with it is likely to translate into high returns over the long term.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
The impact of currency depreciation can also be mitigated by holding a portion of your investment portfolio in dollar-denominated assets.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
During March, FPIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in equities.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Among the Sensex shares, Infosys rose the most by 1.37 per cent, followed by Larsen & Toubro (0.90 per cent), and Wipro (0.83 per cent). HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, ITC, TCS, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints and Titan were among the lead gainers.
Only a fifth of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in breach of the market regulator-specified thresholds may need to provide enhanced disclosure on ultimate beneficiaries, thanks to exemptions being provided, according to people in the know. The ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) disclosures, for FPIs with over 50 per cent holding in a single corporate group or over Rs 25,000 crore exposure to Indian assets, will be required from February 1. But, depending on their category, FPIs will have 10-30 working days to submit these granular details.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') shareholding in NSE-listed companies fell 51 basis points sequentially to 17.68 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, 2024, according to data compiled by PRIME Database. This is the lowest FPI shareholding since December 2012. From the recent peak of 21.21 per cent at the end of December 2020, FPI shareholding is down 353 basis points.
Mutual funds' equity buying remained elevated for the fifth consecutive month in December, taking the net equity purchase past Rs 1.7 trillion in 2023. The aggressive buying in December indicates that flows into equity funds are likely to have remained unaffected by the sharp run-up in the market last month. Mutual funds (MFs) bought equities worth Rs 23,000 crore last month (until December 28) compared to Rs 18,000 crore in November, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
Mutual funds (MFs) turned net sellers of equities in April amid a run up in stock prices on sustained inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPI). The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty50, logged their biggest monthly advance since November last year, gaining 3.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent last month. Data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows that MFs sold equities worth over Rs 5,100 crore in April, the highest since February 2021.
Fund houses have been barred from being net sellers or holding net short positions at the scheme level in commodities.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
Stock markets will focus on global trends for further direction in this holiday-shortened week as the earnings season is largely over, analysts said. Trade experts expect the key benchmark indices to move sideways as investors are trying to decode the impact of rising inflation on foreign portfolio investments. Inflation data released by the US and China last week have fanned fears of earlier than expected rate hike and boosted US bond yields.
The OCCRP report alleges that at one point, EIFF and EMRF held free-floating shares ranging from 8 per cent to nearly 14 per cent in the four Adani Group companies.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
'Then select those that are well-aligned with your risk-return profile and investment time horizon.'
Of the total Rs 63,288 crore invested through the route till July, Rs 52,356 crore was invested in equities, Rs 10,429 crore in debt, Rs 250 crore in the hybrid securities and Rs 190 crore in derivatives segment.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may allow non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) greater exposure to domestic equities if their investments are sent through foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) registered at the GIFT City International Financial Services Centre (IFSC). The proposal will be taken during Sebi's board meeting on Saturday along with other key agenda items such as easing of voluntary delisting mechanism and introduction of a regulatory framework for real estate fractional ownership platforms, said people in the know. At present, the combined holdings of NRIs and OCIs in a global fund have to be less than 50 per cent, while that of a single NRI or OCI is capped at 25 per cent.
Market participants attributed the robust inflows to positive investor sentiment
The Indian equity markets have significantly increased in importance within the emerging market (EM) basket of stocks in recent years. Since 2018, India's weighting in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) EM Index - tracked by passive funds with assets of nearly $500 billion - has doubled, while the number of domestic stocks has grown by almost 70 per cent.
The Sensex and Nifty ended at fresh lifetime peaks on Tuesday amid a largely firm trend in other Asian markets and continuous foreign fund inflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 177.04 points or 0.28 per cent to settle at 62,681.84, its fresh record closing high. During the day, it jumped 382.6 points or 0.61 per cent to its lifetime intra-day peak of 62,887.40.
These include increasing the public float in listed companies to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, increasing the minimum statutory limit for FPI investment in a firm from 24 per cent to the sectoral foreign investment, and lowering government holding in listed public sector undertakings.
Gains in IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, TCS, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, ITC, JSW Steel and Tata Steel helped the barometer scale a fresh high. Axis Bank fell the most by 1.26 per cent, M&M by 0.99 per cent and Hindustan Unilever by 0.67 per cent. Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank and Infosys also declined.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Analysts expect the inflows to accelerate further.
Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) February 8 for the first time ever crossed the Rs 7 trillion market capitalisation, as the stock price of state-owned insurer hit a new high of Rs 1,144,45, on rallying 10 per cent on the BSE. The board of directors of the Corporation are scheduled to meet today i.e. February 8, 2024, to consider a proposal for declaration of interim dividend for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The board will also consider and approve the unaudited financial results for the quarter and nine-month period ended on December 31, 2023.
The Sensex jumped nearly 900 points and the Nifty rallied over 272 points on Friday, bouncing back from the previous day's fall, following a positive trend in global equities and fresh foreign fund inflows. The BSE Sensex rallied 899.62 points or 1.53 per cent to end at 59,808.97 after starting the trade on a positive note. During the day, it jumped 1,057.69 points or 1.79 per cent to 59,967.04.
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
Deteriorating ties between India and Canada could have a bearing on flows into the domestic capital markets. At present, Canada is the seventh largest country for foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the assets under custody (AUC) of FPIs domiciled in Canada stood at nearly Rs 1.8 trillion ($21 billion) at the end of August. Almost 85 per cent of these investments are in listed equity, while the remaining in debt and hybrid instruments.
Overseas investors had put in a net sum of Rs 45,981 crore in March and Rs 11,182 crore in February in the capital markets
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The new Insurance Bill may be implemented in 2015.
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